1. There is a STRONG and URGENT need to be able to develop the art of being able to spot the broader (2/4 hr) trend in the market. This probably must start with asking this basic question multiple times a day – “RANGE or TREND”?
2. Z5 broke 9863.0 to the downside, after having supported THRICE on 60 min chart. After the first spike down, it came back up to 9862.0, and paused. Absolutely missed spotting this in real time! Whereas this was a trade that I should have been waiting for.
1. Z5 o/r 9854.0 level was holding really well. Once that level broke, I took short. But market didn’t break down, instead retracing a couple of ticks.After seeing this happen twice, I finally scratched my position. But after some 1 hr (also on back of ADP, IJC), lower level got broken and the trade gave 7-8 ticks.
Note: I need to plan such trades better. Often the market does not gather breakout momentum immediately, and stops me out OR makes me give up my position, before taking that direction. I should figure out execution of such trades,
– try and distribute my intended lots, some immediately, and some to add if market temporarily retraces.
Markets have changed. A lot.
In the mean time, my trading style has not changed as much as it should. The slower I change, the more opportunities I lose.
1. Booking losses with discipline
1. Scratching spreads a little too often; wasting round turns. Need to better gauge the right time to take position.
BUT on the other hand, fills are also not so easy to get.
2. Trading randomly. Need to make trading cleaner by focusing on particular strategies; like say quickly getting in and out & thus building specific flies through spreads.
3. ^^Thus scale up.
4. Taking short position in front 6-month fly; without a plan. Spiked against by 6 ticks.
Note: When whites are crashing, this fly is a LONG.
5. LIBOR increased by 0.4 bps – quite a magnitude given recent LIBOR fixings. One spike to the downside HAD to happen. Didn’t take the right entry for that trade.
Note: One of the best days to trade is the day IMMEDIATELY AFTER a high volatility day. There is good, but not wild, volatility on such a day.
Strategy: Leg in to make flies through spreads. If the fly is not in gap, very often, you also get a quick chance to leg out as well.
Forcing myself to be aggressive in American hours, even though (or especially because) i had lost out on doing much in European hours.
1. Not coming prepared to trade with the above mindset.
2. Needed to be a little more confident and leg in and make right side flies (quick 3 month spread –> 6 month half-tick combination). Instead, i traded for o/r scalps (making money somewhere, losing it elsewhere), and thus ended up doing around 1000 round turns and not making any money overall; thus completely losing out on European hours.
Very very high trend day. Saw a huge huge sell off due to MBS convexity hedging.
1. Never tried going along the trend even once.
Note: Markets seem to be changing, with very strong chatter of a Fed taper.